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Hey there friends, and happy election day! You’re getting this email approximately 10 minutes away from the first polling place closures today! I know the conventional wisdom is to avoid screens for the day, but I wanted to write a quick guide for those of us who plan on spending our evenings refreshing Twitter and watching Steve Kornacki paint his map. So, let’s just jump into it!

What we know

Genuinely, it’s not a clear picture right now. The polling is neck and neck.

BUT…

That doesn’t necessarily mean the election is going to be close. Polls often have a margin of error in the 3-5% range, meaning that the 50/50 in a given state could end up being 55/45 That’s a 10 percentage point difference!

Because of this, we’re a standard polling error away from a blowout win by either side.

So go into tonight expecting legitimately any single scenario to happen. Gun to my head, I think I’d rather be Kamala Harris right now, but I’m also acknowledging my biases in my reading of the polls and early voting numbers. Really, anything can happen.

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How to track what’s happening