What to Expect from Tonight's Debate

JD Vance and Tim Walz square off tonight. Some thoughts about what each candidate needs to do to come away a winner.

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Hey Friends, and happy Tuesday!

Tonight, JD Vance and Tim Walz go head to head in the only Vice Presidential debate of this election season. Vice Presidential debates often have much less of an impact on the race than Presidential debates do, but there are still some votes to be won and some interesting discussions to be had.

With just a couple of hours to go until these candidates step on stage, I wanted to give you a primer of what to look out for so you can watch the debate with a more informed perspective.

Setting the Scene

For some reason that I’ve never understood, Vice Presidential debates are often more policy-focused than their Presidential counterparts. Perhaps it’s the lack of a felt need to set the tone for the party, or the lower pressure of a smaller viewership. Either way, I expect this debate to be a little bit more focused on current events than either candidates rally sizes or personal predilections.

Some issues/questions I would not be surprised to hear tonight:

  • Discussion of the recent Israeli strikes on Hezbollah leadership in Lebanon/Iran’s ballistic missile attacks on Israel over the last 24 hours

  • A question about JD Vance’s tweets about Haitian immigrants in Ohio and the hate/bomb threats that have followed

  • Talk about Hurricane Helena and how the Biden administration is doing well/doing poorly at assisting the victims (especially those in the swing state of North Carolina)

How JD Vance Wins

As one of the least popular Vice Presidential nominees in modern American history, JD Vance has a much harder job than Walz does tonight. He has had a net-negative favorability since Trump named him as his running-mate, and the numbers have only worsened since:

This isn’t just partisan bluster either: Gallup reports that while 87% of Democrats consider Tim Walz an excellent or good choice as a running-mate, just 75% of Republicans feel the same way about Vance.

Going into tonight, Vance will have to find a way to help close this enthusiasm gap while simultaneously increasing his appeal toward moderates.

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